Bagmati Province Government Faces Uncertainty Amidst Coalition Challenges

Hetauda. It has been 15 days since the Bagmati Province government fell into a minority. The ruling coalition partner CPN (UML) had formed a new coalition by withdrawing its support to the government led by Chief Minister Indra Bahadur Baniyan. The CPN (UML) separated from the government on July 22 and on July 25, it agreed on power sharing with the CPN (Maoist Centre) to lead the government. Even after 15 days of the government falling into a minority, the leftist parties have not been able to reach a concrete decision on forming a new government. Amidst difficult arithmetic, the CPN (UML), which left the government with an agreement to lead it, is still in a 'wait and watch' mode. The CPN (Maoist Centre), which partnered with the CPN (UML) in power, has also not reached a concrete conclusion. As the leftist parties (CPN (Maoist Centre) and CPN (UML)) are not in a position to register a no-confidence motion against the Chief Minister, other parties are also not in a position to believe in the formation of a new government. The leftist coalition (CPN (Maoist Centre) and CPN (UML)) is struggling to reach the required 53 seats for a majority. Especially after the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), considered decisive, signaled that it would not support any side immediately, the process of forming a leftist coalition government has stalled. With only 25 seats from the CPN (UML) and 26 seats from the CPN (Maoist Centre), the majority required to form a government is not enough, making other small parties decisive. Amidst mathematical complexities, the power politics of Bagmati is currently focused on Indra Bahadur Baniyan, the leader of the Nepali Congress parliamentary party. The CPN (Maoist Centre) MPs are waiting to see if the leftist parties and other small parties will wait for Chief Minister Baniyan's decision. While the leftist parties are waiting for Chief Minister Baniyan's easy resignation, the small parties are looking at the situation after that. Meanwhile, the Congress is engaged in discussions with other parties seeking the continuation of the government. Congress leader Baniyan, the largest party in the Provincial Assembly, wants to sustain this government, or will he pave the way for a new equation? CPN (Maoist Centre) MPs are waiting to see. However, the CPN (Maoist Centre) is still unclear about pressuring him to pave the way. While Chief Minister Baniyan is preparing to take a vote of confidence, the strategy of the CPN (Maoist Centre) and CPN (UML) appears uncertain. MPs say that the current political knot will be untangled by the way Chief Minister Baniyan provides a way out. Meanwhile, a CPN (Maoist Centre) MP says that the future of the provincial government has become more uncertain due to disagreements within the leftist coalition regarding leadership and power sharing. The future of the upcoming government depends on what step Chief Minister Baniyan takes or guides for the stability of the province and the formation of a new government. There are currently 104 members in the 110-member Provincial Assembly. To form a government in Bagmati, a majority of 53 seats is required in proportion to the number of incumbent MPs, according to which the new coalition (leftist government) will not have a majority even with the CPN (UML) (25) and CPN (Maoist Centre) (26) combined. The support of the RPP (12 seats) appears to be mandatory and the only option for the CPN (Maoist Centre). However, the crisis has deepened due to disagreements within the RPP about joining the government. Meanwhile, the leftist parties appear to be in further crisis regarding the potential leadership or support strategy that Chief Minister Baniyan may adopt. According to the constitutional deadline, the decision on whether Chief Minister Baniyan will resign or take a vote of confidence must be made by August 5. Leader Thapaliya: 'Claim will be made after numbers are met' CPN (UML) Bagmati Province Parliamentary Party leader Jagannath Thapaliya said that efforts are being made to gather the necessary numbers for the formation of a new government in the province. He said that continuous dialogue is being held with all political parties amidst the current political uncertainty and a way out will be found soon. Leader Thapaliya said that since no single party has a clear majority at present, homework is being done for a new equation. He clarified that although discussions are being held with all parties including the RPP, the CPN (UML) and other parties willing to join the government are not in a position to wait for a long time. 'Our seat count is not complete. Therefore, we have to find the necessary number to form a government. For this, the government will be formed by uniting with whoever the talks are compatible with. Everyone is talking to everyone. We are preparing to form a government by somehow completing the numbers,' he said. He said that the main knot is currently stuck in the arithmetic. However, he said that the ongoing negotiations for power sharing are positive and the process of government formation will begin as soon as a concrete decision is made. Pointing to the Chief Minister's constitutional facility of one month to take a vote of confidence, he added, 'The Chief Minister has a month's time, but we are practicing to find a solution as soon as possible. This process should not be prolonged.' Jamkattel: 'Struggling to gather numbers for government formation' Former Chief Minister of Bagmati Province and CPN (Maoist Centre) Parliamentary Party leader Shalikram Jamkattel said that it is very difficult to gather the necessary numbers for the formation of a new government in the province. He said that the process of forming a new government has become uncertain due to the current power equation and the status of the parties. He informed that no party has a clear majority so far. According to him, the Provincial Assembly has 25 seats for the CPN (UML), 36 for the Congress, 12 for the RPP, 26 for the CPN (Maoist Centre), 2 for the HANEPA, and 3 for the NPMK. He said that challenges have arisen in forming a new coalition due to the scattered numbers in various parties. He said that the government formation talks have not reached a conclusion due to the unclear policy of the RPP and the lack of coordination with the Nepali Congress. He said that discussions are ongoing among the parties in the new coalition about whether Chief Minister Baniyan will take a vote of confidence or resign and pave the way. He said that the political situation remains fluid as no concrete agreement has been reached among the parties so far. 'First, we have to gather the numbers and stake a claim, but the numbers are not yet sufficient,' he said. 'How can we claim the government without sufficient numbers? The path to forming a new government will not open without the Chief Minister providing a way out. Either he has to go for a vote of confidence or resign and create an environment for the Provincial Chief to call for the formation of a new government. This matter depends on the Chief Minister's decision.'